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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."